2008 Viscose Staple Fiber Market Annual Report

No.1 China Chemical Fiber and Textile consultancy has published 2008 Viscose Staple Fiber Market Annual Report. (www.ccfgroup.com)

I Market Review
Global financial tsunami weighed on VSF
market in 2008 as the price of VSF 1.5D
plummeted to 11500yuan/mt from 22500yuan/mt,
with a downturn of nearly 50%.

1.1 Overall review
Viscose price nosedived in 2008, dragged by
the expansion of capacity, slowdown of demand,
constant decline of feedstock values and global
economic recession. The prevailing price of VSF
1.5D plummeted to 11600yuan/mt from
21800yuan/mt in early 2008, representing a big
fall of 46.79%. The lowest level in recent years
occurred in Jun 2003. Shandong Helon and
Tangshan Sanyou quoted higher at above
22000yuan/mt early this year while the
preferential price fell to 11000yuan/mt at year-end.
The lower price on the market even dropped to
10300yuan/mt.
The sales/production ratio mainly stayed at
below 100%, expect in Jul and Aug when the
industry union released the policy of production
cut and price stabilization. The inventory kept
rising and CCF inventory index surged to 33.
CCF O/R index once fell to 60 from 90 and later
bounced up. The average run rate in the second
half of 2008 was pegged at 74%.

I Market review
1.1 Overall review
Chart: Price Trend of VSF 1.5D in 2008
Chart: CCF O/R and inventory index
1.2 Four stages of market trend
Jan-Feb. Key words: bullish → bearish, Spring Festival, snow disaster
Mar-Jun Key words: dive, earthquake, electricity limit, oil and electricity price rises
Jul-Aug. Key words: rebound, Olympics
Sep-Dec. Key words: financial storm, decline
1.3 Characteristics of price decline
Big
Rapid


II Supply and Demand
2.1 Supply
2.1.1 Capacity
Chart: VSF capacity of China in 2000-2008
Table: VSF capacity change by producer in 2008
Chart: VSF capacity of China by Province in 2008
2.1.2 Output
VSF output down for the first time since 2000
Table: VSF apparent demand in 2006-2008
2.2 Import & Export
2.2.1 Import
Chart & Table: VSF imports of China by Origin in 2008
Chart & Table: Domestic and import price comparison
Table: Import price comparison in Dec 2007 & 2008
2.2.2 Export
Chart: VSF exports of China by origin in 2008
Table: VSF exports of China by destination in 2008
Chart & Table: Domestic and export price comparison
Table: Export price comparison in Dec 2007 & 2008
Chart: VSF imports & exports of China in 2007-2008
2.3 Demand

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